Monterey Peninsula Real Estate Blog

Information about Monterey Peninsula Real Estate including new MLS Real Estate Listings by the Monterey Peninsula Home Team. You will see posts about Monterey Peninsula cities including Monterey, Pacific Grove, Pebble Beach, Carmel, Carmel Valley, Seaside, Marina and the HWY 68 Corridor.  These posts will have stories and information about local issues including real estate, news, and other helpful information, plus anything else we want to write about ;-).

April 25, 2023

List Of Car Show Events During Monterey Car Week 2023

Get ready for the automotive event of the year! The 2023 Monterey Car Week is fast approaching, and it promises to be an unforgettable experience for car enthusiasts, collectors, and racing fans alike. With a range of car shows, auctions, tours, and other automotive events, there's something for everyone. Whether you're interested in vintage classics, modern supercars, or just the thrill of the track, Monterey Car Week is the place to be. In this guide, we'll take a closer look at the car show events taking place during Monterey Car Week 2023, so you can plan your trip and make the most of this incredible week.

Here is a list of all car show events taking place in Monterey County during Monterey Car Week this year:

 

The Little Car Show - August 16, 2023, in Pacific Grove  

 

 

 

The extremely popular Concours on the Avenue in Carmel-by-the-Sea

This event was canceled in 2022 and at the time of this post, it was not know if it would be held in 2023.

 

 

 

Motorlux (previously McCall's Motorworks Revival) - August 16, 2023, at the Monterey Jet Center

 

 

Werks Reunion Monterey - August 18, 2023, at Monterey Pines Golf Course

 

 

Rolex Monterey Motorsports Reunion - August 17-19, 2023, at Weathertech Raceway Laguna Seca

 

 

Concorso Italiano - August 19, 2023, at Black Horse Golf Course

 

 

 

Concours d'Lemons California - August 19, 2023, at Seaside City Hall

 

 

Exotics on Broadway (formerly Exotics on Cannery Row) - August 19, 2023, On Broadway in Seaside

 

 

The Quail, A Motorsports Gathering - August 18, 2023, at Quail Lodge & Golf Club

 

 

Pebble Beach Tour d'Elegance - August 17, 2023, starting at Pebble Beach

 

 

Pebble Beach Concours d'Elegance - August 20, 2023, at Pebble Beach Golf Links

 

 

It's important to note that dates and locations are subject to change, and it's always a good idea to check the official websites for each event for the latest information and updates.

April 24, 2023

5 Reasons Why You Should Attend Monterey Car Week

Monterey Car Week is one of the biggest and most exciting automotive events in the world, and it's not hard to see why. With a range of activities, events, and attractions, it offers something for everyone, from casual car enthusiasts to serious collectors and racing fans. If you're thinking about attending the 2023 Monterey Car Week, here are just a few reasons why you won't want to miss out.

 

1. See some of the world's most beautiful and rarest cars up close

Monterey Car Week is home to some of the most prestigious car shows and auctions in the world, where you can see some of the most beautiful and rarest cars up close. From vintage classics to modern supercars, there is an incredible variety of cars on display, many of which are only seen at events like this. The highlight of the week is the Pebble Beach Concours d'Elegance, where the world's most extraordinary and beautiful cars are displayed on the 18th fairway of the iconic Pebble Beach Golf Links.

 

2. Attend exciting automotive events

Monterey Car Week is much more than just car shows and auctions. There are a variety of exciting automotive events to attend, such as the Rolex Monterey Motorsports Reunion at the famous Laguna Seca Raceway, where you can see vintage race cars competing on the track. Another highlight is the Pebble Beach Tour d'Elegance, where you can see the cars from the Concours d'Elegance in motion on a scenic drive through Monterey County.

 

3. Experience the beauty of the Monterey Peninsula

The Monterey Peninsula is one of the most beautiful places in California, with stunning coastal views, picturesque towns, and plenty of outdoor activities. Monterey Car Week is a great opportunity to experience the beauty of the area, from driving along the scenic 17-Mile Drive to exploring the charming town of Carmel-by-the-Sea. There are also plenty of outdoor activities to enjoy, such as hiking, kayaking, and whale watching.

 

4. Connect with fellow car enthusiasts

Monterey Car Week is a great opportunity to connect with fellow car enthusiasts from around the world. Whether you're attending car shows, auctions, or other events, you'll have the opportunity to meet people who share your passion for cars. You may even make some lifelong friends or connections in the industry.

 

5. Enjoy the atmosphere of Monterey Car Week

Finally, Monterey Car Week is simply an amazing atmosphere to be in. There's an energy and excitement in the air that's hard to describe, as car enthusiasts from around the world gather to celebrate their passion for automobiles. The whole week is a celebration of the automotive industry and its rich history, and it's a truly unforgettable experience.

 

In conclusion, if you're a car enthusiast, collector, or just someone who loves cars, Monterey Car Week is an event you won't want to miss. From the incredible cars on display to the exciting events and beautiful surroundings, there's something for everyone. So start planning your trip to Monterey for 2023, and get ready for a week of automotive excitement and adventure.

 

if you are deciding to purchase a luxury home here in Pebble Beach or the Monterey Peninsula, be sure to reach out to the Monterey Peninsula Home Team for expert advice regarding this luxurious community and all it has to offer.

Oct. 26, 2022

Why Today's Housing Market Is Not Like 2008

3 Graphs Showing Why Today’s Housing Market Isn’t Like 2008

3 Graphs Showing Why Today’s Housing Market Isn’t Like 2008 | MyKCM

With all the headlines and talk in the media about the shift in the housing market, you might be thinking this is a housing bubble. It’s only natural for those thoughts to creep in that make you think it could be a repeat of what took place in 2008. But the good news is, there’s concrete data to show why this is nothing like the last time.

There’s Still a Shortage of Homes on the Market Today, Not a Surplus

For historical context, there were too many homes for sale during the housing crisis (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to fall dramatically. Supply has increased since the start of this year, but there’s still a shortage of inventory available overall, primarily due to almost 15 years of underbuilding homes.

The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to show how the months’ supply of homes available now compares to the crash. Today, unsold inventory sits at just a 3.2-months’ supply at the current sales pace, which is significantly lower than the last time. There just isn’t enough inventory on the market for home prices to come crashing down like they did last time, even though some overheated markets may experience slight declines.

3 Graphs Showing Why Today’s Housing Market Isn’t Like 2008 | MyKCM

Mortgage Standards Were Much More Relaxed Back Then

During the lead-up to the housing crisis, it was much easier to get a home loan than it is today. Running up to 2006, banks were creating artificial demand by lowering lending standards and making it easy for just about anyone to qualify for a home loan or refinance their current home.

Back then, lending institutions took on much greater risk in both the person and the mortgage products offered. That led to mass defaults, foreclosures, and falling prices. Today, things are different, and purchasers face much higher standards from mortgage companies.

The graph below uses Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) to help tell this story. In that index, the higher the number, the easier it is to get a mortgage. The lower the number, the harder it is. In the latest report, the index fell by 5.4%, indicating standards are tightening.

3 Graphs Showing Why Today’s Housing Market Isn’t Like 2008 | MyKCM

This graph also shows just how different things are today compared to the spike in credit availability leading up to the crash. Tighter lending standards over the past 14 years have helped prevent a scenario that would lead to a wave of foreclosures like the last time.

The Foreclosure Volume Is Nothing Like It Was During the Crash

Another difference is the number of homeowners that were facing foreclosure after the housing bubble burst. Foreclosure activity has been lower since the crash, largely because buyers today are more qualified and less likely to default on their loans. The graph below uses data from ATTOM Data Solutions to help paint the picture of how different things are this time:

3 Graphs Showing Why Today’s Housing Market Isn’t Like 2008 | MyKCM

Not to mention, homeowners today have options they just didn’t have in the housing crisis when so many people owed more on their mortgages than their homes were worth. Today, many homeowners are equity rich. That equity comes, in large part, from the way home prices have appreciated over time. According to CoreLogic:

“The total average equity per borrower has now reached almost $300,000, the highest in the data series.”

Rick Sharga, Executive VP of Market Intelligence at ATTOM Dataexplains the impact this has:

“Very few of the properties entering the foreclosure process have reverted to the lender at the end of the foreclosure. . . . We believe that this may be an indication that borrowers are leveraging their equity and selling their homes rather than risking the loss of their equity in a foreclosure auction.”

 This goes to show homeowners are in a completely different position this time. For those facing challenges today, many have the option to use their equity to sell their house and avoid the foreclosure process.

Bottom Line

If you’re concerned we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, the graphs above should help alleviate your fears. Concrete data and expert insights clearly show why this is nothing like the last time.

June 13, 2022

More Americans Investing in Real Estate

More Americans Choose Real Estate as the Best Investment Than Ever Before

More Americans Choose Real Estate as the Best Investment Than Ever Before | MyKCM

Americans’ opinion on the value of real estate as an investment is climbing. That’s according to an annual survey from Gallup. Not only is real estate viewed as the best investment for the ninth year in a row, but more Americans selected it than ever before.

The graph below shows the results of the survey since Gallup began asking the question in 2011. As the trend lines indicate, real estate has been gaining ground as the clear favorite for almost a decade now:

More Americans Choose Real Estate as the Best Investment Than Ever Before | MyKCM

If you’re thinking about purchasing a home, let this poll reassure you. Even when inflation is high like today, Americans recognize owning a home is a powerful financial decision.

How an Investment in Real Estate Can Benefit You During High Inflation

Because inflation reached its highest level in 40 years recently, it’s more important than ever to understand the financial benefits of homeownership. Rising inflation means prices are increasing across the board, and that includes goods, services, housing costs, and more. When you purchase your home, you lock in your monthly housing payments, effectively shielding yourself from increases on one of your biggest budgetary items each month.

If you’re a renter, you don’t have that same benefit, and you aren’t protected from these increases, especially as rents rise. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, notes:

“Rising rents, which continue to climb at double-digit pace . . . and the prospect of locking in a monthly housing cost in a market with widespread inflation are motivating today’s first-time homebuyers.”

When Inflation Has Risen in the Past, Home Prices Have Too

Your house is also an asset that typically increases in value over time, even during inflation. That‘s because as prices rise, the value of your home does too. Mark Cussen, Financial Writer for Investopedia, puts it like this:

“There are many advantages to investing in real estate. . . . It often acts as a good inflation hedge since there will always be a demand for homes, regardless of the economic climate, and because as inflation rises, so do property values. . . .”

And since rising home values help increase your equity, and by extension your net worth, homeownership is historically a good hedge against inflation.

Bottom Line

Buying a home is a powerful decision. It’s no wonder why so many people view it as the best long-term investment, even when inflation is high. When you buy, you help shield yourself from increases in your housing costs and you own an asset that typically gains value with time. If you want to better understand how buying a home could be a great investment for you, let’s connect today.

March 14, 2022

Luxury Ocean View Estate for Sale - Pebble Beach

Luxury Ocean View Estate for Sale in Pebble Beach

Search for similar Pebble Beach Luxury homes for sale

Listing Details

  • Pebble Beach Luxury Ocean View Home for Sale
  • 1522 Riata Road, Pebble Beach, CA 93953
  • $7,500,000
  • MLS# ML81880605
  • Bedrooms: 5 Suites
  • Bathrooms: 5 Full, 2 Half
  • Approx. Square Feet:  6,000 square feet (Measured by a Third Party )
  • Lot Size: Over 2.21 Acres

Call Mark Bruno (831) 917-8190 or Jeff Davi (831) 594-3290 with the Monterey Peninsula Home Team to see inside this property.

 

1522 Riata Rd in Pebble Beach

Luxury Ocean View Estate for Sale in Pebble Beach Above “The Lodge”

1522 Riata in Pebble Beach overheadYou are going to love this beautiful example of a Monterey Colonial Spanish Revival style home that dates back to when Samuel F B Morse was shaping Pebble Beach into the famous destination it is today. Located just above the famed Pebble Beach Golf Course, Beach and Tennis Club, Casa Palmero Spa, and The Lodge, this roughly 6000+/- square foot home has been expertly sited on a rare 2+ acre gently sloping parcel of land offering its new owner privacy and infinite possibilities. The current residence offers amazing details and charm seldom seen in new architecture including herring bone hardwood floors, old world plaster walls, high ceilings, large second story decks, multiple fireplaces and even a mural hand painted by a notable artist. 

The main level of this classic Monterey Colonial has a modest entry, that leads you to a beautiful living room with three sets of 1522 Riata Living roomFrench doors, a large fireplace and old school oak herring bone style hardwood floors. The French doors lead out to a large 1400 square foot terrace featuring a BBQ and a fireplace of its own. 

To the left of the entry is a powder room and a door leading to a lower level bedroom suite, a den and a billiard room with a fireplace that also leads to the patio area. The far right side of the entry leads to the staircase to the upper level as well as the kitchen area with a butlers pantry area, breakfast nook, and the dining room featuring a hand painted mural on the walls and a French door to the patio. In addition, the main level has another bedroom suite, a mud room with laundry, plus stairs to access the lower level basement.

The upper level is home a very spacious master suite and two additional ensuites, all with nice views of Point Lobos and Carmel Monterey Colonial Style Home for saleBay along with the Monterey pines and oak trees in the back yard. The upper level also includes two decks totaling more than 300 square feet, one accessible from the hallway via 2 sets of French doors overlooking the front entry and the other accessed via 3 sets of French doors from the master and one French door from the adjoining bedroom with great views of Carmel Bay and the setting sun.

There is a 1000 square foot guest house that is more like spacious apartment with a living room, dining area, a small kitchen a bedroom and a bathroom.

Additional amenities include a large basement that would make a great wine cellar or additional storage, a two-car garage, plus 2.21 acres of land.

 

SFB Morse Pebble Beach

Samuel F B Morse and the Del Monte Forest

“Without Sam Morse, Pebble Beach would be a West Coast Coney Island.” - Bing Crosby

Although Samuel FB Morse is thought of as the guy that developed Pebble Beach, what isn’t widely known is that he was an early conservationist and loved the land and trees and wanted to conserve as much as he could. Read more about SFB Morse here.  https://www.montereyherald.com/2019/02/03/the-boss-and-the-beginnings-of-pebble-beach/

 

Pebble Beach Lodge Neighborhood

Pebble Beach Lodge neighborhoodThe Lodge area of Pebble Beach includes some of the most luxurious and spectacular homes on the Monterey Peninsula. Some of the luxury homes in this part of Pebble Beach are built right on the edge of the Pacific Ocean making them some of the most sought-after ocean front homes in the world! Other homes are built on either Pebble Beach Golf Links or Cypress Point Golf Club, two of the most desirable golf courses in the world! And still other homes are built on home sites with amazing Pebble Beach ocean views of Point Lobos, Stillwater Cove, Carmel Beach, and the Pacific Ocean…Not to mention breathtaking views of some of the most famous golf holes in the world. If you are looking for a truly unique and luxurious piece of real estate, the Lodge area of Pebble Beach might just be what you are after.

The Lodge area includes all the homes built on the Pebble Beach Golf Links and Cypress Point Golf Club, as well as all of the homes built along the coastline between Carmel Gate and Spyglass Hill Road where it meets the Pacific Ocean. This area also includes the “dunes” portion of Spyglass Hill Golf Course (the part of the course that is south of Spyglass Hill Road), Peter Hay Golf Course and the prestigious Lodge at Pebble Beach.

Click for a video of this homes location in Pebble Beach

Click here to take a 3D TOUR of this home

Click here to see MORE PICTURES of this home

 

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March 11, 2022

Monterey Luxury Townhome for Sale

Monterey Luxury Townhome for Sale

Search current inventory of Monterey condos and townhomes for sale.

  • Luxury Townhome for Sale Near Downtown Monterey
  • 7 Via Joaquin Unit 1, Monterey, CA 93940
  • Price: $989,000
  • MLS number: Coming Soon
  • Bedrooms: 3
  • Bathrooms: 2.5
  • Size: approximately 1964 square feet (county records) 

Call Mark Bruno at 831-917-8190 to see if this property is still available and arrange a showing.

Monterey Luxury Condo for sale

Remodeled Luxury Monterey Condo for Sale Near Downtown

Luxury Townhomes in Monterey, CALocated close to downtown Monterey, Old Fisherman’s Wharf, several beaches and parks, as well as Del Monte Shopping Center, this smaller, private complex is tucked securely behind a private gate. 

As you enter Villa Via Joaquin through the private gate, you are greeted to a beautifully landscaped central courtyard with a water fountain. Unit 1 is the last unit on the right-hand side and is very handsome looking from the front with lots of windows and a gazebo. This townhome is a very spacious at 1964 square feet, (county records) and includes 3 bedrooms, 2 and ½ baths and is an end unit.

As you enter the home, you can’t help but notice the dramatic entry with high ceilings all the way up to the second level. This home is a reverse floor plan with the kitchen and living areas on Luxury townhome and condos in Montereythe second floor and man what a fantastic job was done on the remodel. Full advantage was taken of this end unit configuration with windows everywhere and tons of natural light. You almost feel as if you are in a tree house with great views of the Peter’s Gate area of Monterey filtered through the trees. The living room has high vaulted ceilings with a resurfaced gas log fireplace, genuine hickory hardwood floors, a beautifully remodeled powder room, a custom wet bar, and two balconies. 

The kitchen is also drenched in natural light and features newer Shaker cabinets, granite counter tops, newer stainless appliances, a skylight, and a large breakfast nook. It even has a passthrough to the formal dining room.

The lower level is home to a spacious master suite with a gas log fireplace, a private deck with open views and two closets. The Remodeled kitchen in a luxury Monterey Condo for Salespa-like bathroom features a wide vanity with Shaker style cabinets, a Carrara marble countertop with dual sinks, and a custom shower with subway tiles. In addition, there are two more bedrooms, a beautifully remodeled hall bath, and a laundry area.

Other amenities include a gated garage entry with two end parking spaces and an 8’x10’ storage room.

Villa Via Joaquin is a small 15-unit condo complex located off of El Dorado Street near Pacific Street in Monterey, CA. It is tucked back off the main roads and most people don’t even know it exists, making it a hidden gem here on the Monterey Peninsula. With a private gated courtyard, and gated garage access, it is very secure and offers a high level of privacy. 

The Villa Via Joaquin condo complex is near downtown Monterey, Villa Via Joaquin Condo Complex Monterey CAOld Fisherman’s Wharf, several beaches, and parks, as well as Del Monte Shopping Center, making it a great place to call home. Monterey and the surrounding areas have all sorts of activities going on every single week, including several farmer’s markets, great restaurants, shopping, whale watching, fishing, surfing…You get the idea. The lifestyle here is fantastic, and so is the climate.

Click here to see additional images of this Monterey condo.

Monte Regio/Peter’s Gate Neighborhood Real Estate

Monterey's Monte Regio/Peter’s Gate neighborhood is full of an eclectic mixture of homes and people.  You will find early 1900's Victorian era homes, Monterey Colonial style homes, craftsman bungalows as well as other small cottages mixed together with newer construction, various remodeled homes, duplexes and even a few condos complexes like this one. This is a favorite neighborhood for locals and those looking to move here based on its proximity to not only Monterey’s thriving downtown area, but also everything else that makes the Monterey Peninsula a great place to visit and call home. The lifestyle associated with living this close to the water with one of the world best climates is really second to none.  The flatter terrain associated with this location in particular it especially nice as walking, running and bicycling just about anywhere is easier from here than in other parts of Monterey.  

Find Similar Homes in the Area

 

March 9, 2022

Key Factors That Impact Home Affordability Today

Key Factors That Impact Home Affordability Today

Key Factors That Impact Affordability Today | MyKCM

You can’t read an article about residential real estate without the author mentioning the affordability challenges that today’s buyers face. There’s no doubt homes are less affordable today than they were over the last two years, but that doesn’t mean homes are now unaffordable.

There are three measures used to establish home affordability: home prices, mortgage rates, and wages. Let’s look closely at each of these components.

1. Home Prices

The most recent Home Price Insights report by CoreLogic shows home values have increased by 19.1% from last January to this January. That was one reason affordability declined over the past year.

2. Mortgage Rates

While the current global uncertainty makes it difficult to project mortgage rates, we do know current rates are almost one full percentage point higher than they were last year. According to Freddie Mac, the average monthly rate for last February was 2.81%. This February it was 3.76%. That increase in the mortgage rate also contributes to homes being less affordable than they were last year.

3. Wages

The one big, positive component in the affordability equation is an increase in American wages. In a recent article by RealtyTrac, Peter Miller addresses that point:

“Prices are up, but what about wages? ADP reports that job holder incomes increased 5.9% last year but rose 8.0% for those who switched employers. In effect, some of the higher cost to buy a home has been offset by more cash income.”

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) also recently released information that looks at income and affordability. The NAR data provides a comparison of the current median family income versus the qualifying income for a median-priced home in each region of the country. Here’s a graph of their findings:

Key Factors That Impact Affordability Today | MyKCM

As the graph shows, the median family income (shown in blue on the graph) is greater than the qualifying income needed to buy a median-priced home (shown in green on the graph) in all four regions of the country. While those figures may vary in certain locations within each region, it’s important to note that, in most of the country, homes are still affordable.

So, when you think about affordability, remember that the picture includes more than just home prices and mortgage rates. When prices rise and rates rise, it does impact affordability, and experts project both of those things will climb in the months ahead. That’s why it’s less affordable to buy a home than it was over the past two years when prices and rates were lower than they are today. But wages need to be factored into affordability as well. Because wages have been rising, they’re a big reason that, while less affordable, homes are not unaffordable today.

Bottom Line

To find out more about affordability in our local area, let’s discuss where home prices are locally, what’s happening with mortgage rates, and get you in contact with a lender so you can make an informed financial decision. Remember, while less affordable, homes are not unaffordable, which still gives you an opportunity to buy today.

March 4, 2022

Supply and Demand in Today’s Market Feb 2022

Supply and Demand in Today’s Market [INFOGRAPHIC]

Supply and Demand in Today’s Market [INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM

Some Highlights

Check out the supply and demand for real estate by state in this graphic. This is a simple way to see why real estate prices are doing what they are doing in your state.
Here’s what that means for you and your plans to buy or sell in most states where supply is low, and demand is high:
For buyers, expect competition, be ready to move fast, and be prepared to submit your strongest offer. I can tell you how many of my buyers are kicking themselves for not going in just a little higher on "the one."
For sellers, know your house will be the center of attention and that it’ll likely sell quickly and get multiple offers. This doesn't mean you shouldn't get it ready to be on the market. Houses that are in great shape with fresh paint, new flooring and other needed repairs and updates are selling for the highest prices and in the shortest amount of time. Sometimes a $10k investment can yield $50k or more in returns.
If you’re ready to move, let’s connect to talk about our local area and how you can take advantage of today’s unprecedented housing market.
Feb. 22, 2022

Real Estate Voted Best Investment

Real Estate Voted the Best Investment Eight Years in a Row

Real Estate Voted the Best Investment Eight Years in a Row | MyKCM

In an annual Gallup poll, Americans chose real estate as the best long-term investment. And it’s not the first time it’s topped the list, either. Real estate has been on a winning streak for the past eight years, consistently gaining traction as the best long-term investment (see graph below):

Real Estate Voted the Best Investment Eight Years in a Row | MyKCMIf you’re thinking about purchasing a home this year, this poll should reassure you. Even when inflation is rising like it is today, Americans agree an investment like real estate truly shines.

Why Is Real Estate a Great Investment During Times of High Inflation?

With inflation reaching its highest level in 40 years, it’s more important than ever to understand the financial benefits of homeownership. Rising inflation means prices are increasing across the board. That includes goods, services, housing costs, and more. But when you purchase your home, you lock in your monthly housing payments, effectively shielding yourself from increasing housing payments. James Royal, Senior Wealth Management Reporter at Bankrateexplains it like this:

A fixed-rate mortgage allows you to maintain the biggest portion of housing expenses at the same payment. Sure, property taxes will rise and other expenses may creep up, but your monthly housing payment remains the same.”

If you’re a renter, you don’t have that same benefit, and you aren’t protected from increases in your housing costs, especially rising rents.

History Shows During Inflationary Periods, Home Prices Rise as Well

As a homeowner, your house is an asset that typically increases in value over time, even during inflation. That‘s because, as prices rise, the value of your home does, too. And that makes buying a home a great hedge during periods of high inflation. Natalie Campisi, Advisor Staff for Forbesnotes:

Tangible assets like real estate get more valuable over time, which makes buying a home a good way to spend your money during inflationary times.

Bottom Line

Housing truly is a strong investment, especially when inflation is high. When you lock in a mortgage payment, you’re shielded from housing cost increases, and you own an asset that typically gains value with time. If you want to better understand how buying a home could be a great investment for you, let’s connect today.

Feb. 17, 2022

4 Reasons Forbearance Will Not Lead to Wave of Foreclosures

4 Reasons Why the End of Forbearance Will Not Lead to a Wave of Foreclosures

4 Reasons Why the End of Forbearance Will Not Lead to a Wave of Foreclosures | MyKCM

With forbearance plans about to come to an end, many are concerned the housing market will experience a wave of foreclosures like what happened after the housing bubble 15 years ago. Here are four reasons why that won’t happen.

1. There are fewer homeowners in trouble this time

After the last housing crash, about 9.3 million households lost their home to a foreclosure, short sale, or because they simply gave it back to the bank.

As stay-at-home orders were issued early last year, the overwhelming fear was the pandemic would decimate the housing industry in a similar way. Many experts projected 30% of all mortgage holders would enter the forbearance program. Only 8.5% actually did, and that number is now down to 3.5%.

As of last Friday, the total number of mortgages still in forbearance stood at  1,863,000. That’s definitely a large number, but nowhere near 9.3 million.

2. Most of the 1.86M in forbearance have enough equity to sell their home

Of the 1.86 million homeowners currently in forbearance, 87% have at least 10% equity in their homes. The 10% equity number is important because it enables homeowners to sell their houses and pay the related expenses instead of facing the hit on their credit that a foreclosure or short sale would create.

The remaining 13% might not all have the option to sell, so if the entire 13% of the 1.86M homes went into foreclosure, that would total 241,800 mortgages. To give that number context, here are the annual foreclosure numbers of the three years leading up to the pandemic:

  • 2017: 314,220
  • 2018: 279,040
  • 2019: 277,520

The probable number of foreclosures coming out of the forbearance program is nowhere near the number of foreclosures coming out of the housing crash 15 years ago. The number does, however, draw a similar comparison to the three years prior to the pandemic.

3. The current market can absorb any listings coming to the market

When foreclosures hit the market in 2008, there was an excess supply of homes for sale. The situation is exactly the opposite today. In 2008, there was a 9-month supply of listings for sale. Today, that number stands at less than 3 months of inventory on the market.

As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains when addressing potential foreclosures emerging from the forbearance program:

“Any foreclosure increases will likely be quickly absorbed by the market. It will not lead to any price declines.”

4. Those in power will do whatever is necessary to prevent a wave of foreclosures

Just last Friday, the White House released a fact sheet explaining how homeowners with government-backed mortgages will be given further options to enable them to keep their homes when exiting forbearance. Here are two examples mentioned in the release:

  • “For homeowners who can resume their pre-pandemic monthly mortgage payment and where agencies have the authority, agencies will continue requiring mortgage servicers to offer options that allow borrowers to move missed payments to the end of the mortgage at no additional cost to the borrower.”
  • “The new steps the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Department of Agriculture (USDA), and Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) are announcing will aim to provide homeowners with a roughly 25% reduction in borrowers’ monthly principal and interest (P&I) payments to ensure they can afford to remain in their homes and build equity long-term. This brings options for homeowners with mortgages backed by HUD, USDA, and VA closer in alignment with options for homeowners with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.”

When evaluating the four reasons above, it’s clear there won’t be a flood of foreclosures coming to the market as the forbearance program winds down.

Bottom Line

As Ivy Zelman, founder of the major housing market analytical firm Zelman & Associatesnotes:

“The likelihood of us having a foreclosure crisis again is about zero percent.”